Can I retire at 67 with $2 million?
Probably yes, at this level of spending. Spending $60,000 a year, this plan lasted in 99% of 2,000 simulated futures.
It depends most on what you spend
| Annual spending | Probability of success | Median left at 90 | Worst 10% at 90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | 100% | $7.05 million | $2.48 million |
| $60,000 | 99% | $5.16 million | $1.41 million |
| $80,000 | 95% | $3.95 million | $507,012 |
In the large majority of simulated futures this money outlasted the plan. That is a good position to be in, and it is worth knowing that a very high number is not automatically better than a merely good one — a plan that never fails in simulation is often a plan that underspends for thirty years to insure against a future that does not arrive. If your number is up here, the more interesting question is usually whether you could be spending more, not less.
What would change this
- Spending more than modelled here — every extra $10,000 a year moves this materially.
- Retiring before Social Security starts at 67, which means drawing harder in the early years.
- A long-term care event, which this simulation does not model at all.
- A severe market drop in your first few years of retirement, which does damage later gains cannot undo.
What we assumed
- You stop working at 67 — no further income or saving.
- $2,000 a month in Social Security from age 67.
- 7% average return with 15% volatility, and 3% average inflation.
- 2,000 simulated paths, each running to age 90.
Every one of those is an assumption, and the methodology page explains what the model does not capture — including long-term care and your actual tax situation. Computed 2026-08-20.
These are not your numbers
They are the numbers for a made-up person who happens to share your age and your balance. Run it with your own spending, your own Social Security estimate, and your own accounts — it is free and takes about two minutes.
Run it with my numbers →