Can I retire at 62 with $1 million?

Possibly, but it depends on choices you have not made yet. Spending $60,000 a year, this plan lasted in 62% of 2,000 simulated futures.

It depends most on what you spend

This sits in the range where the plan works in most simulated futures and fails in a meaningful minority. That is not a reason to abandon it — it is a reason to know which levers you have. Most people in this band are one moderate adjustment away from the comfortable range: a slightly later start, a slightly lower spending floor, or a part-time year or two early on. The value of knowing the number is that you can choose the adjustment deliberately rather than discovering it at 78.

The 5-year gap before Social Security

Retiring at 62 means 5 years of living entirely off the portfolio before Social Security begins at 67. Those are the most expensive years in the whole plan: you are drawing at full rate with no other income, and any market drop during them does damage that later gains cannot fully undo. This is most of why retiring early is harder than it looks.

What would change this

• Waiting even one or two more years, which shortens the drawdown and grows the balance at the same time.
• Separating essential from discretionary spending, so a bad market year cuts the second and not the first.
• Claiming Social Security later, which raises the inflation-adjusted income floor you keep for the rest of your life.
• Any earned income at all in the first few years, which is worth far more than the same money later.

What we assumed

• You stop working at 62 — no further income or saving.
• $2,000 a month in Social Security from age 67.
• 7% average return with 15% volatility, and 3% average inflation.
• 2,000 simulated paths, each running to age 90.

Every one of those is an assumption, and the methodology page explains what the model does not capture — including long-term care and your actual tax situation. Computed 2026-08-20.

← Every age and portfolio combination