Can I retire at 60 with $2 million?

Probably yes, at this level of spending. Spending $60,000 a year, this plan lasted in 93% of 2,000 simulated futures.

It depends most on what you spend

In the large majority of simulated futures this money outlasted the plan. That is a good position to be in, and it is worth knowing that a very high number is not automatically better than a merely good one — a plan that never fails in simulation is often a plan that underspends for thirty years to insure against a future that does not arrive. If your number is up here, the more interesting question is usually whether you could be spending more, not less.

The 7-year gap before Social Security

Retiring at 60 means 7 years of living entirely off the portfolio before Social Security begins at 67. Those are the most expensive years in the whole plan: you are drawing at full rate with no other income, and any market drop during them does damage that later gains cannot fully undo. This is most of why retiring early is harder than it looks.

What would change this

• Spending more than modelled here — every extra $10,000 a year moves this materially.
• Retiring before Social Security starts at 67, which means drawing harder in the early years.
• A long-term care event, which this simulation does not model at all.
• A severe market drop in your first few years of retirement, which does damage later gains cannot undo.

What we assumed

• You stop working at 60 — no further income or saving.
• $2,000 a month in Social Security from age 67.
• 7% average return with 15% volatility, and 3% average inflation.
• 2,000 simulated paths, each running to age 90.

Every one of those is an assumption, and the methodology page explains what the model does not capture — including long-term care and your actual tax situation. Computed 2026-08-20.

← Every age and portfolio combination